The future of learning

After reading this blog post on The Future of the Web, I realized that perhaps I should actually write down the things I've been saying over the course of this year about the future of learning. The end of the year is usually when people start making predictions, and since I'm constantly talking to people about my predictions for what learning will look like in 5, 10, 20 years, I'm ready to put my predictions out there for comments, praise, and ridicule...so here goes. For what they're worth, here are my thoughts on the future of learning...

Within 5 years:
-The majority of the population will have some experience engaging with online content as an avatar
-All Fortune 500 companies will have some implementation of virtual worlds, most likely as a tool for learning and collaboration
-Social networking tools will routinely be used as tools for developing learning communities
-Serious games, simulations, and immersive learning environments will be standard additions to corporate learning curriculum
-Print training modules will no longer be developed and "printed" but will be delivered through interactive and searchable online tools
-Conferences will all incorporate online components, with sessions held virtually and incorporating social media for community building and discussion

Within 10 years:
-The K12 educational system, higher education, and corporate learning will all incorporate virtual worlds as a daily tool integrated into how students and employees learn
-Curriculum will revolve more closely around user-generated content, development of learning communities, and social media
-Knowledge management for enterprise will be dynamic and fluid, facilitated and monitored by the organization but developed and maintained by the learning communities within organizations
-With the capacity to develop experiential learning, performance objectives will usurp learning objectives and ROI (or ROE) will routinely be measured for learning initiatives based on cost savings, revenue generation, decreased turnover, etc.

Within 20 years:
-There will be complete interoperability between the now often divergent learning systems--LMSs, knowledge management, assessment, social media/networks
-People will routinely be immersed in virtual worlds and virtual content online
-People will have an online "identity" which will include an avatar representation that is used to engage with content across the web
-Virtual reality environments will replace 3D immersive environments, allowing for even more experiential learning

I'm sure that I'll be surprised about which of these predictions happen a lot faster than I think, and which of them never materialize. I'm also sure that there will be some amazing breakthrough innovations that I can't imagine that will change the game completely

I'm also pretty sure that I'm going to be really excited to be a hologram someday.

Virtual worlds, all things considered

Luckily for me, I have a lot of friends who send me research and stories about the use of virtual worlds, some in particular for learning, since my nose has been to the grindstone building one of my own.

Its only fair that I share the wealth and pass along some of the stories I've found most interesting lately (although they've been published over the last few months...it takes me awhile to get caught up).

There's already been a bit of research done on using virtual world technology for medical education, surgical training, etc., but this article talks about the use of virtual worlds for patient education. Given the opportunity to connect with other patients and maintain a certain level of anonymity, I would surmise that very soon, virtual worlds will be one of the most interesting ways that patients receive disease and therapeutic information, in addition to building strong support communities.

MSN recently featured this story about body consciousness and avatars. I spent a lot of time researching and thinking about avatars, especially as the development of our virtual world identities evolve and avatars are our primary means of engagement with others in-world. I still believe avatars are one of the keys to the success of virtual worlds; understanding the psychology of how we identify ourselves in digital medium will reveal important data on how to increase participation and maintain user engagement.

What if the future isn't really virtual, just augmented? Augmented reality has been much discussed recently; check out this game to see how merging the real and digital can make for some extremely innovative ways of interacting with others, and the world. I particularly like the idea of augmented reality in allowing for competition and game play. Maybe augmented reality experiences will be the catalyst to bring virtual worlds more mainstream?

Finally, love this talk by Jane McGonigal. If you don't have time to check it out, I want to draw particular attention to the four points that she identifies as keys to engagement:

1. satisfying work to do
2. the experience of being good at something
3. time spent with people we like
4. the chance to be part of something bigger

She makes note of how World of Warcraft addresses these points--interesting that no matter what world you're in, these are probably the things that matter most to keep you engaged.